Week 14 fantasy football lineup decisions: Benching Nico Collins vs. the Jets and more tough calls
Heading into the last week before most leagues’ playoffs begin, we are faced with an interesting slate of games. Totals are as low as I’ve seen, including a 30-point over/under on the Thursday Night Football showdown between New England and Pittsburgh. But there are some great matchups — including San Francisco vs. Seattle, Dallas vs. Philadelphia, and Kansas City vs. Buffalo — on tap, as well. While I saw a lot of close matchups in my leagues in Week 13, this week could bring a lot of blowouts as the fantasy points will not be divvied up evenly.
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If your studs come from Jacksonville, LA Rams, Buffalo, Philadelphia, or Seattle, you might be in for a disappointing week. Similarly, if your opponent’s roster is composed of Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, Colts, or Packers, I’d be worried. Not only is this week’s schedule more lopsided than usual, but it’s also the last week to make your final playoff push. Therefore, I’m using this little introductory soap box to encourage you to throw out everything you know and start anew with a fresh slate and beginner’s mind.
I’ve discussed this concept of beginner’s mind before, and I find myself turning to it now as I check my lineups. Yep: same guys…same slots…click submit. But what if you could clear all slots and build back for this week only. I mean, you can see why DFS appeals to me so much, but the way season-long rosters appear to you on your screen inherently limits your imagination. Taking a moment to imagine your dream team for this week, against this opponent, might lead you to construct a subtly different roster. Forget what round you drafted him in, if he’s getting thrown to by C.J. Beathard against the Browns, you don’t want him in your starting lineup.
Beginner’s mind doesn’t mean you overthink every decision and go against what you’ve been doing, it just gives you the freedom to consider that you don’t have all the answers yet and maybe haven’t put forth the best lineup effort for Week 14 that you could, considering your bench and the free agents available in your league. With that in mind, I’m going to switch up my normal “don’t overthink” section – which tells you to start good players despite poor matchups, weather, QB play, etc. – and instead focus on several players you shouldn’t second-guess benching this week. As usual, we’ll finish with a few guys that aren’t started in most leagues, but have great upside for Week 14 lineups that need a boost or fill-in.
It’s OK to bench
With CJ Beathard the likely starter for Jacksonville against Cleveland — the league’s most daunting pass defense and fantasy’s worst nightmare — I’m avoiding all Jaguars not named Travis Etienne. The likelihood of Beathard making Ridley or Engram into a fantasy matchup-winning play is low. Very low.
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Benching Collins probably goes against the fantasy rankings grain, but Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ secondary are a Top 5 pass defense and give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers – by a lot. In PPR leagues, Collins might be ok with his normal high volume boosted a bit by the loss of Tank Dell, but I also think he’ll see the priority coverage. Noah Brown or Robert Woods could be the more open receivers Sunday and CJ Stroud is not the league’s leading passer by failing to find the open man. Bottom line is that Collins has a big hurdle to overcome to get you a premier stat line this week. If you are the Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb manager, then by all means use Collins. But if you’re scrambling and need all the upside you can find, Collins probably isn’t your guy.
As lenient as the Philly pass defense is (most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and WRs), they give up the fewest to running backs. Pollard’s had a polarizing season so far and coming off three good weeks, we have both the Primacy and Recency Effects screaming at our brains to keep him in. Pollard had some duds in the middle weeks against friendly run defenses like Arizona and the Giants but was running into a brick wall when he faced Philadelphia the first time, not to mention the 49ers, Patriots or Rams. Like Collins, if you have someone in the wings who could offer a high workload in a better matchup, I’d go for it. Dallas isn’t dumb; they’re going to go out there to try to beat the Eagles through the air like they did the first time when Prescott threw for a season high 44 times.
With QBs dropping like flies around the NFL, you might not think you have the luxury of sitting someone like Stafford, who is coming off his two best games of the season. Still, when I see him facing the Ravens in Baltimore, I can’t help but be a little nervous. Baltimore ranks as the worst QB matchup, third worst for WRs, and second worst overall for fantasy. They allow opponents the least number of points per game, lead the league in sacks per game, and force 1.6 turnovers per game on average. They also allow the fewest passing touchdowns of anyone in the league. I’m a broken record here, but the deck is stacked against Stafford this week, and I’d rather not trust anyone in the Rams’ pass game. Puka Nacua is the lone exception and even he carries risk this weekend.
Tinker with
While the Texans are facing a formidable pass defense in the New York Jets, the run game should find an easier path to success. Pierce overtook Devin Singletary in workload in Week 13 and ended up with the rushing touchdown. If he was dropped in your league (I see him available in about 35 percent of Yahoo leagues) or if you’ve been keeping him on the bench I like the idea of rolling him out this week. Not only are the Jets more susceptible to the run, Houston is a big favorite here which could spell favorable game script for Pierce. All signs point to a robust and successful run game by the Texans, giving Pierce the kind of upside you want.
While Carolina’s new coaching staff didn’t exactly light the fantasy world on fire in Week 13, they did give the Bucs a run for their money. What stood out to me was the quick switch in WR hierarchy. Adam Thielen has been a PPR beast with multiple double-digit target games, but it was Mingo who saw 10 targets (6/69) in Week 13. The Bucs pass defense is a sieve, but the timing certainly makes it seem like the new regime in Carolina wants to see what they have in the rookie. It makes sense to start developing chemistry between Mingo and Bryce Young now if the two are to be the building blocks of the future franchise. Unfortunately, Young hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in a game since Week 8 and New Orleans boasts an above average pass defense. Still, as underdogs, we have to expect the Panthers to rely on some big plays to stay in this game, giving Mingo the shot to be a fantasy hero.
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Isaiah Likely
He’s an obvious choice but given that the Ravens were on bye last week, still worth a mention. Likely gets a Top 3 TE matchup with the Rams after posting a 4/40 line in Week 12 on six targets. I’m starting him over Evan Engram in one league.
If the QB injuries have got you at last and Minshew is available, I like him a lot this week. Week 13 saw both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce supported by a strong pass game from Minshew, who finished with 312 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The Bengals are the seventh best fantasy opponent, giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The game should be a close one which further points to Minshew being in a position to succeed.
(Top photo: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
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